第一场

题目：The Tragedy of Trust

主讲人：姜树广博士(浙江财经大学)

时间：2016年10月13日（周四）下午2：00-3:30

地点：文三栋MBA中心501课室

姜树广，浙江财经大学杰出青年学者，深圳证券交易所博士后，山东大学经济学博士，法国国家科研中心访问学者，研究领域为行为经济学和实验经济学。已在《经济研究》等学术期刊发表文章十余篇，曾获山东省社会科学优秀成果奖、山东省优秀博士学位论文等多项奖励。

第二场

题目：A General Result on the Estimation Bias of ARMA Models

主讲人：Bao Yong教授　澳门大学          

时间：2016年10月13日下午3:30-5:00

地点：文三栋MBA中心501课室

 摘要：I derive a general result on the finite-sample approximate bias of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator of the full vector of parameters in ARMA models when the error term may be nonnormally distributed and exogenous regressors may be included. It is found that there is typically estimation bias for parameters associated with the AR and MA terms and the bias depends only on these parameters themselves and the exogenous regressors. Parameters associated with the exogenous regressors are estimated approximately unbiased and the error variance is estimated with a downward bias, proportional to the number of exogenous regressors and the orders of AR and MA terms in the model. The distributional assumption on the error term does not affect the general bias result. A Monte Carlo study illustrates the effectiveness of using analytical bias for the purpose of bias correction. 

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